Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 28.371423 31.560412 35.221391 39.799627 45.468106 52.394600 61.732497
2025-03-16 23.749047 27.734126 32.726575 39.663626 49.465714 63.593653 87.335714
2025-03-23 20.743607 25.033051 30.744757 39.332620 52.850156 75.515254 123.875518
2025-03-30 18.681193 23.099847 29.262720 39.133413 56.182659 89.219555 181.970847
2025-04-06 16.943444 21.309762 27.603412 38.165793 57.788592 100.865808 262.407042
2025-04-13 16.266611 20.893375 27.845049 40.249268 65.758763 133.788518 608.938328
2025-04-20 15.197420 19.759271 26.782822 39.792604 68.365113 156.160829 1438.262387
2025-04-27 14.435922 18.998350 26.197863 40.060347 72.761569 192.103216 24301.587007
2025-05-04 13.815052 18.385783 25.765904 40.513720 77.902592 244.147530 NaN
2025-05-11 13.217384 17.751543 25.212388 40.596353 82.167658 308.277876 NaN
2025-05-18 12.599048 17.032644 24.428920 40.038060 84.343904 372.238458 NaN
2025-05-25 12.145593 16.545568 24.004845 40.189261 89.017024 499.551532 NaN
2025-06-01 11.654635 15.971807 23.383977 39.827150 92.021590 660.307430 NaN
2025-06-08 11.196010 15.423299 22.762149 39.367395 94.601325 898.234646 NaN
2025-06-15 10.779517 14.920040 22.181671 38.916129 97.133409 1298.626162 NaN
2025-06-22 10.422106 14.495492 21.714518 38.672087 100.589532 2233.015397 NaN
2025-06-29 10.016195 13.966057 21.004443 37.705090 100.300538 3258.284593 NaN
2025-07-06 9.948166 14.012883 21.418260 39.738094 116.675801 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 9.642543 13.627545 20.940845 39.288031 119.513315 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.423554 13.383329 20.729202 39.548905 127.166558 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.234411 13.181807 20.588170 39.992121 136.889435 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.026542 12.936231 20.337009 40.072792 144.521756 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 8.781041 12.611976 19.899328 39.526360 146.951118 NaN NaN